Reserves and cash flows under stochastic retirement

Uncertain time of retirement and uncertain structure of retirement benefits are risk factors for life insurance companies. Nevertheless, classical life insurance models assume these are deterministic. In this paper, we include the risk from stochastic time of retirement and stochastic benefit structure in a classical finite-state Markov model for a life insurance contract. We include discontinuities in the distribution of the retirement time. First, we derive formulas for appropriate scaling of the benefits according to the time of retirement and discuss the link between the scaling and the guarantees provided. Stochastic retirement creates a need to rethink the construction of disability products for high ages and ways to handle this are discussed. We show how to calculate market reserves and how to use modified transition probabilities to calculate expected cash flows without significantly more complexity than in the traditional model. At last, we demonstrate the impact of stochastic retirement on market reserves and expected cash flow in numerical examples.     

Wellness tourism in Sareyn,Iran: resources,planning and development

Health tourism is a broad concept that incorporates both medical and wellness tourism. Sareyn, city of Ardabil province, is one of the largest and the most diverse cities for health tourism. Although health tourism in Iran is in its infancy, it can offer new opportunities, and strengthen the overall competitiveness of Iran's tourism industry. In this paper, by using strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analysis, the strengths and opportunities for sustainable health tourism are determined. Also, weaknesses and threats are recognized; finally, guidelines for efficiently using the strengths and transforming the weaknesses into opportunities and strengths are presented.     

System dynamics modelling and forecasting health tourism demand: the case of Russian resorts

This article presents the results of the system dynamics modelling of the regional market of health tourism in the Krasnodar region of Russia. The research was based on various indicators characterizing the supply and demand for this type of tourism for years 2006–2012. The medium-term forecast made by constructed model shows a possible decrease in number of health tourists and income of sanatorium organizations. Price competition of inexpensive foreign resorts was a key factor influencing the market of tourist services; therefore ruble devaluation to US dollar may improve the prognostic indicators.     

小麦种植效益影响因素与提高途径分析研究——以山东省日照市为例

小麦是世界各国重要粮食作物之一,也是我国整个农业生产的基础,处重要战略地位,关系民生和国家粮食安全。但在粮油大宗作物当中效益一直垫底,在迫切需要加快农业转型升级的同时,提高小麦种植效益非常重要。文章采用2000年以来有关数据,按高、中、低等3种不同产量水平计算产值,扣除当年种子、化肥、农药等直接成本和人工费用等间接成本,对小麦种植效益横向、纵向分析比较,得出近十几年来小麦种植效益大致经历了低迷期、增长期和稳定期等3个阶段,纯收入在45~400元/667m~2之间,效益增加主要得益于粮价的提高和政策性补贴。纵观国际市场、国内政策等宏观外因条件,结合人工、地力、劳动力素质等内因影响,解析了小麦种植效益制约因素。联系实际并辅以实例,提出了小麦当前种植效益在不能依靠小麦涨价的背景下,只能依靠科技手段,进一步挖掘增产潜力,走节本增效的路子。     

校企合作办学过程中利益相关者利益博弈及协调研究

在利益相关者理论的基础上，通过问卷法、深入访谈法和文本分析法分析酒店管理专业校企合作办学过程中主要利益相关者的利益冲突及其对校企合作办学的影响机制。研究发现：利益相关者的利益诉求是影响校企合作办学的重要因素；学生自身的冲突主要包括实习前的期望和实习后的满意；学生与酒店企业的利益冲突主要包括：学生对知识技能的学习和接受培训与酒店对实习生劳动力的充分利用，学生对薪酬福利的要求与酒店以较低的人力成本获得经营绩效，学生实习工作和身份需要得到价值认同和受尊重与酒店管理工作欠完善的冲突；学校与酒店的利益冲突主要包括：学校公益性质与酒店的营利和追求经营绩效，学校注重对学生培养和综合素质的提高与酒店对学生廉价劳动力的获得和人才培养的相对欠缺。最后从构建有效利益沟通协调机制、满足合理诉求及完善校企合作办学保障体系三个方面提出利益诉求协调措施，为推动校企合作办学顺利实现提供参考和借鉴。     

Indigenous Peoples’ Health Care: New approaches to contracting and accountability at the public administration frontier

Abstract

This article analyses reforms to contracting and accountability for indigenous primary health care organizations in Canada, New Zealand, and Australia. The reforms are presented as comparative case studies, the common reform features identified and their implications analysed.

The reforms share important characteristics. Each proceeds from implicit recognition that indigenous organizations are ‘co-principals’ rather than simply agents in their relationship with government funders and regulators. There is a common tendency towards more relational forms of contracting; and tentative attempts to reconceptualize accountability. These ‘frontier’ cases have broad implications for social service contracting.     

Optimal Retirement with Increasing Longevity

We develop an optimizing life‐cycle model of retirement with perfect capital markets. We show that longer healthy life expectancy usually leads to later retirement, but with an elasticity less than unity. We calibrate our model using data from the US and find that, over the last century, the effect of rising incomes, which promote early retirement, has dominated the effect of rising lifespans. Our model predicts continuing declines in the optimal retirement age, despite rising life expectancy, provided the rate of real wage growth remains as high as in the last century.     

农业生态旅游对区域经济的贡献及影响研究——以武汉市黄陂区为研究对象

[目的]农业生态旅游的发展逐渐成为区域经济新的增长点,分析农业生态旅游对区域经济的贡献及负面影响,协调两者间的关系,对于区域经济可持续发展具有重要意义。[方法]文章通过文献查阅和数据调查法,以武汉市黄陂区为研究对象,分析其农业生态旅游对区域经济的贡献及负面影响。[结果]农业生态旅游对黄陂区域经济的贡献主要表现在有效地促进区域现代农业的发展、产业结构的调整、农民就业及国民经济的增长,然而也存在农业生态旅游投资大、农民获利不均等因素直接影响区域经济发展以及农业生态环境遭受破坏后间接影响区域经济发展等负面影响。因此政府有必要提前科学规划农业生态旅游,提供支持引导,培养和提高公民的生态环保意识,保障社会、经济和环境的协调发展。[结论]鉴于黄陂区农业生态旅游对区域经济的贡献高于负面影响,为进一步保障区域经济的可持续发展,建议综合协调各个方面,将负面影响降到最低,以其为推动今后社会主义新农村建设提供一定参考。     

关于研究所职业卫生管理工作的探讨——建立标准化的职业卫生管理系统

国家对企业承担职业健康安全管理的主体责任提出了新的、更高的要求,职业病的防治成了安全管理的重要板块.本文借鉴质量体系、职业健康安全管理体系、安全标准化的管理模式,寻求建立一套完整有效、持续改进的标准化职业卫生管理系统.